As we move through the summer selling season, the housing market continues to show resilience despite economic uncertainty and persistently high mortgage rates. Here’s a quick update on the latest trends impacting buyers, sellers, and the broader real estate landscape.
Sales Activity Holding Steady, but Subdued
Existing home sales for May clocked in at an annualized rate of 4.03 million units—down 1.9% from the prior year. While this level is over 25% below the long-term average, sales have held fairly steady around 4 million units for the past two years. Buyers and sellers alike continue to navigate a tight market constrained by elevated rates and affordability pressures.
Fed Policy Adds to Market Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve’s June meeting highlighted diverging views on monetary policy. The Fed increased its inflation forecast for the year to 3% and lowered its GDP growth outlook to 1.4%. These opposing signals complicate the Fed’s decision-making going forward, particularly as some policymakers advocate for rate cuts while others signal patience. Futures markets now reflect only a 20% chance of a cut in July, but an 82% chance by September.
Mortgage Rates Trending Lower—But Still Elevated
Mortgage rates have drifted lower by roughly 0.2% over the past four weeks. Even so, 30-year mortgage rates remain range-bound and well above pre-2022 norms, impacted by sticky inflation and broad economic policy uncertainty. Spreads between mortgage rates and Treasury yields remain elevated as well, suggesting lenders are still pricing in risk.
What This Means for Agents
Stable sales numbers in the face of economic crosscurrents signal that buyers are still active—but highly rate-sensitive. As financing costs fluctuate, so does buyer urgency. Agents who stay close to their lender partners can help clients strategize around windows of lower rates, navigate affordability concerns, and act quickly when conditions shift.